The Ohio-Republican Myth

Mitt Romney doesn’t need to win Ohio to win the presidential election, he needs to do well enough overall that he ends up winning Ohio. There’s a huge difference.

First, remember that correlation is not causation. Ohio voters do not cause voters in other states to vote one way or another, such that securing Ohio votes secures votes in other states. Ohio reflects a larger trend.

The Electoral College scenarios by which Romney can win the election start to proliferate at the point where he’s doing so well generally that the most likely outcomes include him snagging Ohio. The site 270ToWin reports that there are 161 combinations of swing states Romney can win to reach 270 electoral votes, but that 8 out of the 10 most probable ways involve winning Ohio. Nonetheless, Romney should concentrate on doing well generally, not spending all his time in Ohio.

Second, it’s true that since the first election in which Republicans participated in 1856, the party has won Ohio every time it has won the White House. However, since 1928 the same statistic is true for Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Virginia, all swing states this election cycle. That is, 100% of the time the … Read More

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